Cubs’ rotation is key in team’s success

By Rob Willer

The Cubs’ rotation is one of the integral parts to this team’s success as opening day approaches.

We have seen a complete overhaul of the rotation as the Cubs made a big splash in free agency by adding Edwin Jackson and Scott Baker. These moves proved to be key due to Matt Garza’s injured lat and Baker having a setback with his shoulder surgery recovery.

We look at Baker and his stats over the past five seasons average out to be around 11-13 wins with a 4.00 earned run average. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and is on the 60-day DL. My prediction is he obtains nine or so wins in 18 starts and has an earned run average around 3.65. He should do well in the National League, although he is susceptible to giving up the home run ball. In other words, he has a high fly ball rate and has only gotten as high as 35 percent of ground ball rate. Baker is a good, cheap signing for the Cubs. He’s not going to be a long-term building block, but he’s a guy who won’t kill the Cubs in the rotation and will probably be traded in July for a prospect or two to continue to rebuild Chicago’s strengthening farm system. The Cubs aren’t counting on him to head their rotation, but instead slot in behind Garza and Jeff Samardzija.

Jackson seems to be traded every off-season and finally found a home with the Cubs signing a four-year $52 million deal. The deal with include an $8 million signing bonus and average annually $11 million for the next four years. On a quality team he resembles a fourth or five type starter, basically his role on the Cardinals and the Nationals the past two seasons. The Cubs will count on Jackson being a solid No. 3, and at some points pitching above a No. 3 starter. This was the first big move of the Theo Epstein-Jed Hoyer era and it will define their reign as president and general manager.

Now we transition into the Cubs’ ace: Samardzija. Samardzija will be counted on to have 25-30 starts and somewhere between 180-200 innings pitched in the 2013 season. Last season, Samardzija seemed to be the Cubs’ most consistent pitcher. He went 9-13 on the season with a 3.81 earned run average, pitching 174.1 innings with 180 strikeouts. Nicknamed the “Shark,” Samardzija should be in the running for possible CY Young votes this upcoming season. Samardzija is one of the bright spots of the Cubs’ 2013 season and should be a solid pitcher for years to come. My prediction on Samardzija is 15-6 with a 2.96 earned run average with 200 strikeouts in 190 innings.

We move on to the Cubs’ biggest trading chip for the 2013 season: Garza. The Cubs had a deal in place last season with the Texas Rangers to acquire top prospect Mike Olt, but Garza ended up getting hurt with an elbow injury. Reports have Garza returning sometime in May at the earliest as he is also on the 60 day DL. Due to Garza missing a month or so, my prediction for him is nine to 13 wins with an earned run average under four. Depending on how many starts he gets before the deadline, the Cubs could make him available barring any other setbacks. In my mind he stays with the Cubs this season.

Travis Wood surprisingly pitched the second-most innings for the Cubs in 2012 and wasn’t considered to make the rotation due to the new acquisitions this off-season. Wood’s 2012 season was a mixed bag. He ended up with a 6-13 record with an earned run average under four. He should have had nine or 10 wins but the bullpen early last season was unreliable and gave up many leads that led to no decisions. My prediction for Wood is eight to 10 wins with a 3.50 earned run average and 135 strikeouts over 23 starts.

If the Cubs are going to be successful this season it all starts with the rotation. It definitely will be better than last year so I’m predicting at least 75 wins for this club.