UW-Madison, Temple professors predict Obama victory


With only 16 days until the presidential election, many political analysts are polling and pooling information to predict a probable outcome.

On Friday morning, political science professors Christopher Wlezien and Charles Franklin, from Temple University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, gave a seminar in DuSable Hall on political forecasting.

Together they presented their statistical analysis and predictions for the upcoming presidential election.

The polls, as defined by Wlezien, are statistics showing “how you would vote if the election were held today.”

And according to those polls, Wlezien and Franklin both are pointing to a probable Obama victory, saying that there is an 85 percent probability that Obama will be the next president based off the current polls.

It does not necessarily mean McCain will cease his efforts, but according to Charles Franklin, McCain needs to concentrate on Ohio and Florida.

“He needs to focus on Ohio and Florida and win or else it won’t matter to get five or six other states,” Franklin said. “However if I were his consultant, by the looks of things, I would recommend a Hawaii-based campaign and enjoy the rest of his time there.”

While it may have been a number-crunching presentation, those who attended the seminar still understood the significance of the material.

“I thought it was an interesting analysis of elections, but there’s not a whole lot shocking to say about this election,” said Katie Stone, a first year Ph.D student in political science.

Vesta Hall, a freshman undecided major, attended the seminar for her communications class.

“I thought it was very well done and I learned a lot today.”

As the days remaining for the election draw to a close, both professors said the polls become more predictable.

“We should expect a lot less poll change and volatility and a bigger advertising blitz, but we still expect Obama to win,” Wlezien said.