A list of chilling figures haunt the rooms of Halas Hall. Despite the Bears’ history of NFL Championships and Hall of Fame players, the numbers 23,443 and 154 still send a shiver down the spine of the Monsters of the Midway.
These numbers represent the abysmal Chicago Bears career records in passing yards and passing touchdowns, set by Jay Cutler in the last decade. Failures at the most important position in football have plagued the Bears and held them back for decades.
Enter quarterback Caleb Williams.
NEW ERA
While every few years seems to bring new, probably unwarranted, hope for Bears fans, the selection of Williams may provide a unique result – success.
In addition to Williams, the Bears have added wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, running back D’Andre Swift and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who revived the career of quarterback Geno Smith in Seattle.
At the same time, head coach Matt Eberflus’ defense is on an upward trend, allowing just 15.5 points per game in the six games after Thanksgiving in 2023.
On paper, this is a team that can redeem years of suffering from fall Sundays in Chicago, but the game is played on turf where the results are much less predictable.
There is a wide range of possible outcomes for 2024 Bears, and I aim to cover the spectrum – the ceiling, the floor and the realistic outcome.
CEILING: 11-6 – PLAYOFF APPEARANCE
There is a world in which the offensive weapons accumulated by the Bears are simply too much for opposing defenses to handle. Moore, Allen and Odunze could run wild, fueling nightmares to defensive backfields for weeks. If you manage to hold the wideouts at bay, Swift and tight end Cole Kmet will be left free to pick up easy yardage.
Even with Williams making understandable rookie mistakes from time to time, Chicago could see its first top-10 offense since 2018.
If the defense, led by cornerback Jaylon Johnson and defensive end Montez Sweat, picks up where it left off, sub-20 scores and game-breaking turnovers will make life easy for the high-powered offense.
Even in the best-case scenario, inexperienced players and coaching turnover will likely hinder any legitimate chance at a Lombardi Trophy, but a double-digit win total and a postseason showing would be cause for celebration at the beginning of this new era of Chicago football.
FLOOR: 5-12 – FOURTH-PLACE FINISH IN NFC NORTH
Unfortunately for eager Bears fans, there is a real possibility that a change in quarterback will only result in another flop. Former Bears’ first-round quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields found themselves at 5-11 and 6-11, respectively, at the end of their rookie campaigns. It’s possible Williams will suffer an eerily similar fate.
The Bears were one of the top-10 most sacked teams in the NFL each year Fields held the reins. If the O-line trouble that seems to haunt Chicago year after year cannot flip a switch, all the flashy offensive toys may be rendered useless.
With trouble in the trenches and yet another new starting quarterback and offensive coordinator combo – the sixth since 2017 – 2024 could see another incompetent attack come to Soldier Field.
It’s hard to see a defensive decline coming in 2024 with the Bears retaining all key starters, but injuries, or a player regression on par with safety Eddie Jackson in 2019, could produce a lackluster year defensively.
REALISTIC OUTCOME: 9-8 – MISS PLAYOFFS
While another first-round bust is not off the table completely, Williams has shown early signs, like throwing accuracy and keeping eyes downfield, that should give him a higher floor than his predecessors. Williams can be expected to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers with fewer turnovers and sacks, but don’t expect him to be a savior in year one.
Defensively, the Bears have looked solid across the board ever since trading for Sweat last season. Eberflus has seemingly established a culture of hustle and confidence that shined through in the second half of 2023, and there is little sign of that stopping. However, they still lack enough depth in the front seven to be truly elite.
The first half of the Bears’ schedule is manageable, which means they should find some wins as they work through early growing pains. By the time the more difficult second half rolls around, Chicago should have momentum large enough to win a few important games and keep them in the playoff hunt.
A 9-8 season is not every fan’s dream, but would be a sign of progress seldom found at Halas Hall.
