NIU football remains one of the top programs in the country after getting some help from a pair of Power Four schools during its well-deserved bye week in Week 3 to climb to No. 23 in The Associated Press Top 25 college football poll.
The Huskies will need to take care of business Saturday against the University at Buffalo to retain Top 25 status, but a bit more help from a recent opponent, an upcoming foe and even a Mid-American Conference rival this weekend could propel NIU even further up the college football rankings.
Before I dive into the games, here’s a look at the current Top 25.
WEEK 4 AP TOP 25 POLL
- Texas (3-0)
- Georgia (3-0)
- Ohio State (2-0)
- Alabama (3-0)
- Ole Miss (3-0)
- Tennessee (3-0)
- Missouri (3-0)
- Miami (FL) (3-0)
- Oregon (3-0)
- Penn State (2-0)
- USC (2-0)
- Utah (3-0)
- Kansas State (3-0)
- Oklahoma State (3-0)
- Oklahoma (3-0)
- LSU (2-1)
- Notre Dame (2-1)
- Michigan (2-1)
- Louisville (2-0)
- Iowa State (2-0)
- Clemson (1-1)
- Nebraska (3-0)
- Northern Illinois (2-0)
- Illinois (3-0)
- Texas A&M (2-1)
The games are listed in order of their perceived impact on NIU’s poll ranking.
No. 23 NIU OVER BUFFALO
2:30 p.m. CT Saturday | Huskie Stadium (DeKalb, Illinois) | TV: ESPN+
This is the most important game of the week for the Huskies. If they lose to Buffalo (2-1) – or any team, for that matter – NIU will be quickly expelled from the Top 25, and nothing else I write here will matter.
In the current age of the AP Top 25, premier programs like the University of Georgia and Louisiana State University are given grace. By the end of the 2023 regular season, eight four-loss Power Five teams finished in the AP’s rankings. Meanwhile, Group of Five schools – NIU included – have little to no room for error, save for the rare exceptions no team should bank on.
From the NIU fan perspective, every game is just as important – and nerve-racking – as the last in the race for a spot in the College Football Playoff, which is now a realistic outcome for the nationally-ranked Huskies. NIU may be favored by 14.5 points, but overlooking Buffalo is a recipe for heartbreak.
No. 17 NOTRE DAME OVER MIAMI (OHIO)
2:30 p.m. CT Saturday | Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Indiana) | TV: NBC/Peacock
The most important team to root for this season – besides NIU – is the 17th-ranked University of Notre Dame (2-1), as every Notre Dame win makes NIU’s Sept. 7 upset victory over the Fighting Irish in South Bend more impressive to the AP voters.
As a bonus, Notre Dame’s Week 4 opponent is Miami University (0-2), the defending MAC champion and one of the biggest threats to NIU’s quest for its second MAC title in four years. While the RedHawks dropping to 0-3 in non-conference play wouldn’t have much impact on the league standings, it would knock Miami firmly out of the conversation for the best G5 team in the country.
Notre Dame is the 26.5-point favorite and was assigned a 96.8% chance to dispatch Miami at home. But if the Fighting Irish play anything like they did against NIU, the RedHawks could play the spoiler on the road.
NC STATE OVER NO. 21 CLEMSON
11 a.m. CT Saturday | Memorial Stadium (Clemson, South Carolina) | TV: ABC/ESPN+
If there’s any Week 4 game that can kill two birds with one stone for NIU, it’s the Textile Bowl rivalry game between North Carolina State University (2-1) and No. 21 Clemson University (1-1). An NC State win springs Clemson from the Top 25 and also gives the Wolfpack a shot at returning to national rankings, just in time for next week’s matchup with NIU in Raleigh, North Carolina.
The odds aren’t leaning in NC State’s favor, though. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Wolfpack a measly 11.6% chance of pulling off the road upset, and graduate student starting quarterback Grayson McCall being “day-to-day” with an undisclosed injury he suffered Saturday certainly doesn’t help matters.
Unless freshman quarterback CJ Bailey is the next coming of Johnny Manziel, don’t count on the Wolfpack to knock off a ranked Clemson team in Death Valley. But a man can dream, can’t he?
NO. 22 NEBRASKA OVER NO. 24 ILLINOIS
7 p.m. CT Friday | Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska) | TV: Fox
The 22nd-ranked University of Nebraska (3-0) and the 24th-ranked University of Illinois (3-0) currently sandwich NIU in the Top 25, but there’s actually more reason to gun for the team ahead of the Huskies on Friday night.
Though a Nebraska loss removes a team from NIU’s path to Top 25 ascension, Illinois would likely leapfrog NIU with an unbeaten 4-0 record that includes two wins over ranked opponents. Plus, Illinois fans already do enough bragging on social media about Illinois being the better program despite not having the cojones to schedule NIU since 2010. Do you really feel like hearing those same fans gloat about Illinois having a higher AP ranking than NIU? Didn’t think so.
Also, keep in mind that Nebraska faces college football powerhouses Ohio State University and the University of Southern California on the road this season. The Cornhuskers should get their losses in due time.
BOWLING GREEN OVER NO. 25 TEXAS A&M
6:30 p.m. CT Saturday | Kyle Field (College Station, Texas) | TV: SECN+/ESPN+
Rooting for one of NIU’s conference rivals might sound absurd, but it really isn’t. A MAC team beating a Southeastern Conference foe on the road for the second week in a row – after the University of Toledo demolished Mississippi State University on Saturday night – only boosts the MAC’s reputation among the G5, whose top team gets an automatic bid to the CFP under the new playoff format.
If Bowling Green State University (1-1) can take down Texas A&M University (2-1) for the league’s third Power Four upset of the season, NIU will have one less threat from behind in the AP poll. Then if NIU can overcome Bowling Green in its MAC road opener come Week 7, the Huskies should gain serious traction in the CFP race, if they don’t have it already.
GEORGIA TECH OVER NO. 19 LOUISVILLE
2:30 p.m. CT Saturday | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (Louisville, Kentucky) | TV: ESPN2
This one is purely schadenfreude. Barring a postseason matchup, NIU isn’t scheduled to play either team this season. But the 19th-ranked University of Louisville (2-0) likely drops out of the Top 25 – or at least below NIU – with a loss to the Georgia Institute of Technology (3-1), which should let the Huskies jump a spot in the rankings.
Louisville is currently a 10.5-point favorite with a 78.2% chance to win, according to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor. But a road win isn’t out of the question for a Georgia Tech team that went 5-3 against Atlantic Coast Conference teams last season – one of those losses admittedly being a five-point shortcoming against Louisville in the 2023 opener – and was ranked No. 23 just two weeks ago.
