The final month of the regular season is upon us, which means the race for the Mid-American Conference Championship is heating up. The return of midweek MACtion saw conference frontrunner Western Michigan University (5-4, 4-1 MAC) fall by the hand of an NIU team that seemed certain to miss its shot at competing for a title, but now has a bit of new life.
Make no mistake, NIU will need help to make it to Detroit, and a lot of it. But for any of that help to actually work, NIU needs to win out. The Huskies have a relatively light schedule to end the regular season with the University of Akron (2-7, 1-4 MAC), Miami University (5-4, 4-1 MAC) and Central Michigan University (3-6, 1-4 MAC) being their final three opponents.
The Huskies should be able to take care of business at home against Akron and Central Michigan – “should” being the key word there, as NIU has yet to beat a MAC team at home this season. The biggest challenge will come Nov. 19, when the Huskies play the reigning conference champion Miami (Ohio) for the Mallory Cup in Oxford. The RedHawks are 3-1 at Yager Stadium in 2024, but the Huskies are 3-2 on the road. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor for the game currently gives Miami a 59.7% chance to win.
While this scenario isn’t NIU’s only path to the MAC Championship, it’s the most likely considering the probable outcomes of the matchups involved.
- NIU beats Akron, Miami (Ohio) and Central Michigan
- Miami (Ohio) beats Kent State, loses to NIU and Bowling Green
- Bowling Green beats Miami (Ohio), loses to Ball State and Western Michigan
- Western Michigan beats Bowling Green, loses to Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan
- Toledo beats Central Michigan, Akron and Ohio
- Buffalo beats Kent State, loses to Eastern Michigan and Ball State
- Ohio beats Ball state, loses to Eastern Michigan and Toledo
- Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan, Buffalo and Ohio
- Ball State beats Buffalo and Bowling Green, loses to Ohio
The University of Toledo would take home the regular season championship, and second place would come down to a six-way tie. NIU benefits here by holding head-to-head tiebreakers over Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio) and Western Michigan, and secondary tiebreakers against Eastern Michigan and Ohio. Buffalo and Ball State must finish 4-4 or worse due to their tiebreakers against NIU.
Like it or not, NIU’s most realistic chance of playing for the MAC title involves a rematch with Toledo (6-3, 3-2 MAC). There were other scenarios I considered that would’ve pitted the Huskies against a different opponent, but the scenario where NIU makes the cut thanks in part to Toledo running the table seemed the most favorable.
However, much of the heavy lifting here would be done by underdogs like Central Michigan and Ball State. Central Michigan taking down Western Michigan and Ball State upending the University at Buffalo and Bowling Green State University will be key in clearing the way for NIU to leapfrog those teams in the standings.
I’ll admit that the odds of those teams pulling off those victories aren’t stellar. Getting the better of the conference’s tougher teams is a chore of its own. Doing it with a postseason berth on the line makes it nearly impossible.
But when it comes to MACtion, just about anything can happen.
