DeKALB – On Friday night, Israel said it had launched a preemptive strike on Iran. Later that night, the U.S. confirmed that it had struck Iran along with Israel.
After the first wave of strikes was completed, President Donald Trump posted an eight-minute video on Truth Social announcing the attack early Saturday. In the video, Trump mentioned Washington’s decade-old dispute with Iran.
The military action by the U.S. has been named Operation Epic Fury.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes came as the U.S. and Iran had finished a second round of discussion regarding the future of Iran’s nuclear program. These exchanges were held in Geneva, Switzerland.
Trump had repeated his threat against Iran in his State of the Union address, accusing Iran of rebuilding its nuclear program and constructing missiles supposedly capable of reaching the U.S.
Iran has stated that the nuclear program is intended solely for peaceful purposes.
Ches Thurber, an associate professor and the director of undergraduate studies of political science, said that an attempt at regime change could make a diplomatic solution less likely.
“I think that (regime change) makes things difficult if you’re looking for a diplomatic resolution to this crisis, because if the Iranians do not know whether they can offer concessions to stop the bombing or not, because the goal is regime change, it’s very difficult to have a negotiation,” Thurber said.
There are already visible impacts from this war. Six U.S. service members have been killed with Trump saying more deaths are likely to come before the end of this war. Iran has faced hundreds of casualties, some of them resulting from the bombing of a school in Southern Iran, with most of those casualties being children.
These strikes also resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is currently a front-runner for new leadership.
As we see the humanitarian impacts, the economic impacts begin to show.
“We’re seeing huge spikes in energy prices, huge slides in global stocks, as economic markets react to the uncertainty about this conflict and what it is going to mean for energy production, for trade and global commerce over the next several months,” Thurber said.
Before this attack, the Trump administration did not request authorization from the United Nations Security Council. Thurber said the current administration’s priority is not to follow international law.
“I don’t think that is a high priority for President Trump and this administration. I don’t think that he’s necessarily trying to claim that it’s consistent with international law,” Thurber said. “Generally, international law requires that the use of force be conducted in self-defense or with authorization of the UN Security Council. There certainly hasn’t been authorization from the Security Council.”
Thurber also said there was no imminent threat from Iran and the U.S. didn’t act in self-defense.
“I think it’s very hard to argue that this was done in self-defense,” Thurber said. “Obviously, President Trump will argue that it was done in response to belligerent actions in the past from Iran, what he believed was serious and he’ll even claim an imminent threat presented by Iran.”
The U.S. was previously a part of a nuclear deal during the Obama administration. The deal originally limited Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to levels capable of creating a bomb, but it did not directly restrict Iran’s ballistic missile program. Trump abandoned this deal in his first term, while searching for a new deal that would mean Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon.
“President Trump didn’t like either of those, I guess, omissions from the first treaty. He has stated in the lead-up to this conflict that he wanted Iran to completely abandon uranium enrichment altogether and completely abandon its missile programs,” Thurber said.
The conflict has now widened in the Middle East, as Iran has launched missiles and drones at Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and a United Kingdom base in Cyprus.
Trump has said this operation could last up to four to five weeks.
