The revolutions in Eastern Europe might give birth to an American-style democracy, but an NIU political scientist said new freedoms could unleash repressive forces in the nations.

Dan Wit, NIU dean for International and Special programs, said there was a similar revolutionary period 140 years ago in Europe which ultimately led to nations like Nazi Germany.

“It’s naive to assume that all these nations will turn into an American-style democracy,” Wit said. “You see a surfacing of all the best aspirations of people and some of the ugliest.”

Wit said, however, history never duplicates itself and he cautioned against making simple predictions.

“The revolutionary nature is very complex and one can sound foolish with oversimplification. In effect, we don’t know the ultimate result,” he said.

Even though, Wit said history makes a case where the initial overthrow of authoritarian governments from 1848 to 1852 and the following nationalism led to human rights abuses.

“If you look at the long-term results of 1848 to 1852, it helped to feed facism. What we’re seeing now in Europe is similar of authoritarian governments being tossed aside,” he said.

The new freedoms of the Eastern Europeans could unleash the old hatreds among ethnic groups instead of forming a democracy.

Current problems in the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Romania stem from ethnic violence, he said.

“What history indicates is that building a successful democracy is one of the most difficult things in the world. It took the French five republics, two empires and two kingdoms to achieve democratic success he said.

Establishing a democracy will require ethnic and religious tolerance, an effective political system and a strong economy, among other things, Wit said.

“People think about feeding their stomachs first. Hitler was successful because he fed the people,” Wit said.

The important issue to look at is the treatment of human rights when trying to see if the revolutions are going toward democracy or repressive regimes, he said.

“You have to ask if ethnic religious groups are being given freedom or being destroyed and if the new political system is solving (political) problems,” he said.