The recent demonstrations in China’s Tiananman Square and the bloodshed resulting from a crackdown by the Chinese government have left many people wondering what will happen next in a country where democracy seems far from possible.

Following the actions by the soldiers of the 47th army, the demonstrative protests by Chinese students have subsided, but many feel the seeds of change have been planted and now only need time to grow.

Brantley Womack, a political science professor at NIU, said it is “very difficult” to say what will happen over the next couple of months in China.

“There will probably be a continuation of surprises,” Womack said.

If the people of China, particularly the students, decide to continue their struggle for democratic reforms, they need something “to complain about before they can do something,” he said.

Finding something to complain about will not be difficult for the students, Womack said, because the “general situation of repression will continue to be in conflict with the idea of modernization and openness. The government will not be able to provide credible policies and distract the public, he said.

“The pressures (on the government) are very much alive and have been made more intense,” Womack said.

Womack continued to say the repression currently existing in parts of China has forced people to “keep their heads down,” and said this current movement by students, followed by governmental suppression, is not something new.

“This has happened repeatedly since 1957, and now people will again keep quiet and try to stay out of trouble,” Womack said.

Arriving at solutions to the problems in China will be difficult, but Womack said if the current leadership of the Communist Party in China were to be replaced, it could trigger a changing of the old guard and a new beginning for China.

“If (Chinese Premier) Li Peng were deposed, if (party leader) Deng Xiaping were put finally into permanent retirement, if (party general-secretary) Zhao Ziyang returned to take the leadership position in Chinese politics, a good bit of the pessimism, if not the physical damage of what’s happened … could be reversed.

“This possibility is not something to be discounted, and if it does happen, it could mean the difference between recent events being remembered as a black page in Chinese history or the beginning of a black chapter,” Womack said.

Womack said it is a misconception to think the Chinese government is in control of the situations in China.

Indeed, the current leadership in China is said by many to be in a weak and faltering state, and with the weakness of any government comes the inability to enforce the will of that government.

“People think the government is stable, but that is not true,” Womack said, adding the initial reactions after the slaughter of students indicated a lack of government control.

Womack said, “Party reaction will prove in which direction the country moves.”

William Wilbur, NIU finance professor, said the economic implications of the China crisis also will depend on how the party reacts not only to the wishes and demands of the Chinese population, but also to the need for global economic security and open channels of trade.

“The economic course is very important,” Wilbur said. “Considerable progress had been made over the past 10 years, but now that progress is threatened.”

The main threat facing the Chinese economic system lies with the inability on the part of the Soviet Union to offer all the needed capital without the help of the European and American communities, Wilbur said.

Another problem corresponds with the fact that Hong Kong, the hub of trade in China, needs an enormous amount of economic fuel in order to sustain its place as “an engine for economic improvement,” Wilbur said, adding that if China wants to continue on the path to economic vitality, it must reassess its position on change and reform.

“Imagine if Wall Street and trade were eliminated in America,” Wilbur said, comparing the Chinese reliance on Hong Kong to that of the U.S. on Wall Street.