Chicago Cubs to face challenging season
March 18, 2013
As spring training hits the halfway point, the Cubs have seen their share of storylines this past off-season.
We have seen a complete overhaul of the rotation as the Cubs made a big splash in free agency by adding Edwin Jackson, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva and Scott Baker. In other moves, the Cubs continue to shop Carlos Marmol and Alfonso Soriano, but as every day passes it’s becoming more likely they will be with the Cubs on Opening Day.
We look at Baker and his stats over the past five seasons average out to be around 11-13 wins with a 4.00 earned run average. He is recovering from shoulder surgery so he probably won’t be able to contribute at least until May. My prediction on Baker is he obtains nine or so wins in 18 starts and has an earned run average around 3.65. He should do well in the National League, although is he susceptible to giving up the home-run ball. In other words, he has a high fly ball rate and has only gotten as high as 35 percent of ground ball rate. Baker is a good, cheap signing for the Cubs. He’s not going to be a long-term building block, but he’s a guy that won’t kill the Cubs in the rotation and will probably be traded in July for a prospect or two to continue to rebuild Chicago’s strengthening farm system. The Cubs aren’t counting on him to head their rotation, but instead slot in behind Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija.
Jackson seems to be traded every off-season and finally found a home with the Cubs, signing a four-year $52 million deal. The deal with include an $8 million signing bonus and average annual $11 million for the next four years. On a quality team he resembles a fourth or fifth type starter, which was basically his role on the Cardinals and the Nationals the past two seasons. On the Cubs, Jackson will be counted on being a solid number three, and at some points pitching above a number three starter. It’s the first big move of the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer era and it will define their reign as president and general manager.
As the roster stands today, the Cubs will have many promising, young infielders, like first-baseman Anthony Rizzo, National League Gold Glover Darwin Barney at second, Starlin Castro at shortstop, and either Ian Stewart, Josh Vitters or Luis Valbuena to play third base. This infield is definitely the Cubs’ strength. Rizzo will be able to start right away and play a full season with them and will hopefully blossom into an everyday first-baseman. The Cubs’ major problem is going to be production at third base. Kevin Youkilis was available as a free agent third baseman, but the Cubs were unwilling to pay $12 million on a one-year contract and ultimately decided he wasn’t a fit.
Throughout the offseason the Cubs have emphasized pitching at all levels, within the club and down into their minor league teams. At the end of last season, many fans were upset with the performance of the Cubs’ starters, including Justin Germano and Chris Rusin. Now the Cubs organization is giving us some hope by showing they are willing to spend money to obtain assets for the future. Slowly but surely they are establishing a farm system by adding the past two years’ top draft picks, Javier Baez and Albert Almora. Another player the Cubs added is international ball player Jorge Soler, signing him for nine years and $48 million. There are various options later in the deal that can increase the value of the contract, but from what I have seen through the lower levels of the minor leagues he is progressing quickly.
As we scramble for the last few spots the Cubs have to decide who will make the rest of the 25-man roster. Some intriguing position battles this spring were for the third base job between Stewart and Valbuena. In my eyes it looks like Valbuena will get the nod to start the season as the third baseman as Stewart recovers from his leg injury. Dave Sappelt has done enough this spring to gain a roster spot and a fifth outfielder spot behind newly signed Scott Hairston for a modest contract this off-season and should be provide the cubs with insurance if they decide to deal Soriano.
It will be an interesting season for sure. This year the Cubs will stay competitive for longer as they have insurance for Soriano and Marmol if they were to be traded at the deadline. Garza starts the season on the Disabled List until May so that may hinder them at the start, but this goes back to how they gained so much depth this off-season for this problem. Tune in next week as I recap the final roster cuts and grade Cubs prospects.