Local experts weigh in on Libyan crisis
September 5, 2011
DeKalb | After rebels assaulted and captured Tripoli, NIU experts discuss Col. Moammar Gadhafi and how his ousting will impact the world.
Brian Sandberg, associate professor of history, said as Gadhafi is backed into a corner, he must surrender, flee or organize low-intensity guerrilla warfare against the National Transitional Council (NTC) . The NTC has occupied residencies and government instillations, effectively dissolving Gadhafi’s hold on power, Sandberg said.
“I don’t see that it will have a significant impact upon the world. Libya is not a world power, not even a regional power,” said philosophy professor Tomis Kapitan. “Its major economic asset is oil, and the new rulers will be eager to sell oil to the companies that already buy it.”
Christopher Jones, political science professor and Associate Vice Provost for University Honors, said the United States did not have a close relationship with Gadhafi and played a helpful role through NATO in ousting him.
“Most Libyan rebels and people recognize and appreciate this reality, which could have a positive impact on future U.S.-Libyan relations,” Jones said.
While U.S.-Libyan relations may strengthen, Jones and Kapitan think the ousting of Gadhafi would likely have a regional impact.
“If the Libyan people establish a representative government with constitutional safeguards for the protection of human rights, that could have a significant regional impact,” Kapitan said. “This would provide an example for the people of other Middle Eastern countries who seek regime change and an end to the rule by minority governments.”
Jones said he believes a similar outcome from Gadhafi’s overthrow.
“The overthrow of Gadhafi stands as another example of the difficulty many dictators will have in sustaining their power and authority in the coming years,” Jones said.
As Gadhafi has essentially lost his grasp on power, Kapitan, Sandberg and Jones agree that President Barack Obama will not change his mind and will not send in ground troops.
“The U.S. military is already overstretched globally and a presidential election year is on the horizon,” Jones said.
Sandberg commented on Libya from a historical point of view.
“The history of civil conflict suggests that the endings of civil wars are often confusing and ambiguous,” Sandberg said. “Difficult compromises and negotiated settlements are usually necessary to produce a new government and society after the divisions of civil warfare.”
Sandberg said at the end of a civil war, re-establishing law, order and stability may take years or decades to implement.
“The future government and interests of Libya remain to be seen,” Jones said.