The Northern Star makes MLB 2008 predictions
March 18, 2008
NATIONAL LEAGUE FINAL STANDINGS:
* = wild card
NL EAST:
1. NEW YORK METS
Here’s a deep, philosophical query for you: Is it worse to choke and lose the NLCS, or choke and not even make the playoffs? That’s how the last Mets’ two seasons have ended. For them to finally realize their vast potential, acquiring the best pitcher in baseball is a good step. Johan Santana anchors a capable rotation, while the offense should prove entertaining: Shortstop Jose Reyes may be the most exciting player in the game, Carlos Beltran is a certifiable 40/40 threat, and David Wright could very soon become the new face of Major League Baseball.
2. ATLANTA BRAVES
Tom Glavine? Javy Lopez? What is this, 1995? The Braves sure hope so, and a trip back to the postseason is a strong possibility with a full year of slugger Mark Teixeira (30 homers and 105 RBI between Texas and Atlanta last season), a healthy Chipper Jones and a ready-to-bust-out Jeff Francoeur. Toppling the Mets will be a big challenge, but manager Bobby Cox knows a thing or two about division championships; try 11 in a row from 1995 to 2005. That wasn’t an accident, and Cox has the talent at his disposal to surprise again this year.
3. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
After years of complaining, Phillies fans finally got the thrilling ride to October they’ve been clamoring for … even if it concluded with a trainwreck in the NLDS. The Phillies return virtually intact from last year, complete with new closer Brad “at least I was better than Octavio Dotel” Lidge. Overall, the Phillies have the goods to make another playoff run, but the status quo they present in 2008 will have a hard time standing against improved teams in New York and Atlanta.
4. FLORIDA MARLINS
I hate the Florida Marlins. Seriously. I absolutely detest their entire organization. They acquire magnificent talent, win, then blow it up so the owner doesn’t have to pay another dime. They really could care less about the eight fans they have. Anyway, on topic, this year’s team looks like it was assembled by someone who got plastered five minutes before their fantasy baseball draft. Their one standout player, Hanley Ramirez, has QUADRUPLE (!) crown potential – league leader in average, homers, RBIs and stolen bases. But since he’s young and talented, I’m sure they’ll trade him, too. So nevermind.
5. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Here’s all you need to know about the Nats: Their top pitcher is John Patterson, and they spent their offseason acquiring players who talked their way off their old clubs. Granted, young outfielders Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge have worlds of talent between them, but it’s going to be a long time before this club makes D.C. baseball relevant. At least outstanding young third baseman Ryan Zimmerman (.266 AVG, 24 HR, 91 RBI in 2007) presents a reason to watch this team.
NL CENTRAL:
1. CHICAGO CUBS
Lou Piniella appears to have this Cubs team focused and ready to take care of business, curse or no curse. No team in the NL possesses a 1-2-3 punch that will put the fear of God into pitchers quite the way Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are capable of doing. The rotation? Another matter entirely. Ted Lilly’s ‘07 performance should get his picture next to the word “aberration” in the dictionary. Even ace Carlos Zambrano is hardly a sure thing. But if he gets it done, they’ll be hard to stop.
2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The Crew’s young core of homegrown All-Stars is a year older and one season removed from a pennant race, and the once troublesome bullpen has been completely rebuilt. Two major questions remain to be answered, however: Can Ned Yost keep his emotions in check late in the season, and can Ben Sheets even make it that far? In any case, the rotation is far and away the best in the division (even without Sheets), and if the young offense finds any consistency, this club has the tools to make a deep playoff run.
3. CINCINNATI REDS
Call me crazy, but in an unpredictable division, I think Dusty Baker and the Reds have a legitimate shot at making some noise this season. Their rotation is obscenely underrated, with a pair of top-flight starters (Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo) and a future ace (Homer Bailey). The offense is dangerous in a homer-friendly park, and the bullpen (Cordero, Bray, Coffee, others) should be a strength. Granted, batting Brandon Phillips fourth is just silly, but we’ll see how that works out.
4. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
The Cards? Fourth? Yeah, I know, it looks weird to me, too. But this proud franchise just keeps backpedaling while the rest of the division passes them by. The rotation is a mess – when you’re banking on Matt Clement, there’s cause for concern – and the offense is a mystery with mainstays Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and David Eckstein playing elsewhere. For as great as Albert Pujols is, no one’s great enough to win by themselves, and this could be an uncharacteristically ugly year for the Redbirds.
5. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
While the Pirates have watched their longtime brothers-in-losing up in Milwaukee morph into contenders, Pittsburgh is still on a carousel to nowhere. An All-Star slugger (Jason Bay) and a quartet of great young pitchers (Tom Gorzelanny, Zack Duke, Paul Maholm, Ian Snell) offer hope, but this team is still missing that one vital piece to bring the individual talent together as a team.
6. HOUSTON ASTROS
Remember when trading for Miguel Tejada and making him the face of your franchise was a good thing? Seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it? You have to feel for Astros fans; with the Craig Biggio farewell tour over, all they’re left with is a team of Kaz Matsuis and one poor, poor Roy Oswalt. He has to be the only man in America who wishes he got traded to the Orioles. This team’s pitching is going to be absolutely pitiful.
NL WEST:
1. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
It’s official: The NL West dynasty (is that an oxymoron?) of the Babybacks has begun. Their young core of already polished veterans will only improve, and new to the desert this season is a pair of aces sure to dominate in Brandon Webb and former A’s All-Star Dan Haren. If Randy Johnson is even mediocre, this club should easily win the most games of any NL team.
2. SAN DIEGO PADRES *
The team with the lowest rotation ERA in the NL last season returns with two workhorses (Jake Peavy, Chris Young) and a Hall-of-Famer-in-waiting (Greg Maddux). Presented this season to give the Padres some unusual spice is Cubs castaway Mark Prior; and, given the way things like this usually work out for the Cubs, a 20-win season from Prior would seem fitting. The offense will likely struggle again, but if you played in a park with an 800-foot fence, you would, too.
3. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Perhaps the most uncertain club in baseball this season, the Dodgers could finish in the basement just as easily as they could make a deep playoff run. Joe Torre is out to prove he can win without George Steinbrenner’s checkbook; a group of vets (Jason Schmidt, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal) are out to prove they aren’t washed up; and Andruw Jones is out to prove he’s worth $36 million. The answer to the latter is “no,” by the way.
4. COLORADO ROCKIES
It’s midnight, Cinderella. Their October run was nothing short of magical – by the way, Tony Gwynn, Jr. is still waiting on the parade Colorado owes him for keeping the Padres out of the playoffs – but it’s back to Earth for the Rox this year. Surprise contenders that play well past their ability have a tendency of falling flat the next season (See: 2003 Angels).
5. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Good riddance to the Giants, whose short-sighted management is coming back to bite them with you-know-who finally gone. Their entire roster is either too old, too young or just not good enough. Not finishing dead last in the NL would be worth celebrating.
AMERICAN LEAGUE FINAL STANDINGS:
* = wild card
AL EAST:
1. BOSTON RED SOX
Stacked in the rotation, stacked in the lineup, stacked on defense … all eyes will be on the defending champs this season in their bid to repeat. No team in baseball possesses both the talent and experience the Red Sox have, and it makes them the odds-on favorite every time they step foot on the diamond.
2. NEW YORK YANKEES *
Congratulations to the Yankees, who after seven years of unmitigated postseason failure finally accepted that they can’t buy a championship. Sure, losing out on the Santana bidding to the crosstown Mets hurts on the back page of the Times, but with the core of young talent the Yanks are (finally) compiling, holding on to them will pay big dividends in the future … just not right now. An All-Star appearance and a batting title should be demanded of Robinson Cano this season.
3. TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Being the Toronto Blue Jays is kind of like giving a fish a bath: It’s pointless. They can have as many stud pitchers (Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and a host of youngsters) and productive all-around veteran contributors (Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Eckstein, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, etc.) as they want. As long as they’re in the AL East, they haven’t a prayer of doing anything but playing spoiler.
4. TAMPA BAY RAYS
What do you do when you’ve been unspeakably awful every season you’ve existed? Change your name! That’s a surefire fix. In all seriousness, this club is finally making an effort to get some darn pitching (Matt Garza is a solid pickup) and ridding itself of spoiled malcontents (Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes). But this is still the AL East, and the Rays are still the Rays, Devils or not.
5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Peter Angelos continues to be the worst owner in baseball, possibly in all of professional sports. He initially nixed a deal that would’ve bagged Roy Oswalt from the Astros in exchange for Miguel Tejada, then ended up trading Tejada to Houston for a bag of magic beans anyway. If you look hard enough – very hard – you can see some promising talent. But not enough to make a difference.
AL CENTRAL:
1. DETROIT TIGERS
Two years removed from an AL pennant, the Tigers are hardly resting on their laurels. No team made a bigger splash this offseason than Detroit, as the Tigers took advantage of yet another Marlins firesale and acquired brilliant third baseman Miguel Cabrera, who at 24 years old already has 138 home runs. Detroit’s offense, which added former All-Star SS Edgar Renteria, is dynamic from top-to-bottom. The already stacked rotation now includes lefty Dontrelle Willis, who for once won’t have to be an ace.
2. CLEVELAND INDIANS
In typical Cleveland fashion, the Indians were so close to the World Series last year they could taste the champagne. Another deep postseason run is possible…but unlikely. Cleveland’s only two offseason additions were Rockies postseason hero Jamey Carroll, who will serve in a backup role, and the hope that former Braves super-prospect Andy Marte will finally live up to his potential. Though the Indians should push 90+ victories in a winnable division, Detroit simply has more muscle.
3. MINNESOTA TWINS
This team’s demise has been tremendously overexaggerated. Sure, losing a once-in-a-generation ace is a negative thing, but this team shouldn’t struggle to score runs; Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Delmon Young (an upgrade over the offensively overrated Torri Hunter), Michael Cuddyer and others form a strong offensive core. While the offense is sure to be dynamic, the pitching picture is very hazy: Francisco Liriano appears a long ways from regaining his pre-injury form, and there’s no one else to turn to.
4. CHICAGO WHITE SOX
The White Sox are drifting in some strange purgatory between rebuilding and contending. Several key pieces from their championship team remain, but GM Kenny Williams may not be done making changes quite yet, particularly as it pertains to their manager. The Sox certainly have the lineup to compete on a day-to-day basis – Nick Swisher was one of the more underrated additions this offseason – but the lingering threat of further turnover and a porous rotation means an uncertain year for the South Siders.
5. KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Any talk of the Royals not finishing dead last in this division should be dismissed as Cubs fans praying for more anti-White Sox fodder (not being a fan of either team, I personally get a lot of amusement out of it). Bit-by-bit the Royals are adding pieces to bring them back to respectability; in the meantime, there’s no real reason to believe they’ll be any less awful this year. P.S. Zack Greinke, can you PLEASE be good already? What are you waiting for?
AL WEST:
1. LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM
The Angels are quickly becoming this decade’s answer to the Atlanta Braves of the 90’s, and they’d best do something about it. Their outstanding pitching alone makes them a lock to win a mediocre division: Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields quietly form the best closer/setup duo in baseball, and the rotation is even stronger with the addition of two-time 18-game winner Jon Garland, who at 28 is just entering his prime. Torri Hunter and his Gold Glove collection gives them the best defensive outfield in the game.
2. SEATTLE MARINERS
If you took the one good individual season everyone on this team had and combined them, you’d have a heck of a team. Unfortunately for the Mariners – and their payroll – that isn’t the case. Adrian Beltre predictably has not justified the hysterical contract the M’s gave him, and Richie Sexson’s career accomplishment to this point was resurrecting two franchises (Milwaukee and Arizona) just by leaving them. Seattle has the individual talent to compete, but not enough to go anywhere with it.
3. TEXAS RANGERS
Michael Young is still the most underrated player in the game, and the Rangers are still going nowhere. Bonehead personnel moves – Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton might be the worst trade of the decade – and penny pinching management have the Rangers banking on breakout years from players who shouldn’t be expected to have one.
4. OAKLAND ATHLETICS
If you like baseball, “Moneyball” is a must-read. The book chronicles how A’s GM Billy Beane keeps Oakland in contention, despite a tight budget, with shrewd trades and tremendous player development. Beane is going to keep making moves, and he’s going to eventually defy the odds and win again. Unfortunately, “eventually” won’t be this year, because for the first time in a while the A’s have no talent whatsoever. Eric Chavez is broken down at 30, and Rich Harden is simply never going to stay healthy.