Numbers from past NIU Homecoming games paint an optimistic picture

By BEN GROSS

Numbers don’t lie.

At least that’s what the title of books, blogs and other sources say.

So, if numbers are unable to lie, does that mean they tell the truth? If they do, looking at numbers from the past could be a good indicator of what to expect this Saturday.

Here’s what the Northern Star found.

NIU is 62-28-10 overall in its Homecoming games.

In the last 10 Homecoming games, the Huskies are 9-1.

The last time the Huskies lost on Homecoming was in 1997 against Vanderbilt. NIU lost 7-17.

NIU head coach Joe Novak recorded his second win as the Huskie head coach on Homecoming. The second win came in the coach’s third season.

NIU has scored a total of 315 points on Homecoming in the last 10 years. That’s an average of 31.5 points for the Huskies during this time frame.

Since 1997, the Huskies have only allowed opponents to score a total of 121 points during Homecoming. The opposition is averaging 12.1 points per game during the past 10 years.

The most points scored by an NIU opponent on Homecoming during this time frame is 21 points. Those 21 points were allowed in 2006 when the Temple Owls visited the Huskies for Homecoming.

Of the 10 games, NIU has scored 40 or more points on four occasions. The most points scored on Homecoming by the Huskies was in 2002. That year, NIU beat Western Michigan 49-0.

NIU’s opponents have combined for a record of 39-74 during the seasons in which it played at the Huskie’s Homecoming.

The best record opponent that NIU beat in its Homecoming was Central Florida in 2000. Central Florida would finish that year at 7-4.

Since 2001, the average Homecoming attendance crowd is 15.1 percent larger than a normal home game.

Using numbers from the two games at Huskie Stadium this season, NIU should expect a crowd of 25,779 for Saturday’s game.

In the last six seasons, the Homecoming game has been the most attended game four times. The other two times, the game was the third most-attended.

The 2003 Homecoming game had an attendance of 28,221 — the largest crowd Huskie Stadium has held.

The 2006 Homecoming game saw the greatest increase in attendance when compared to the season average attendance. That year, attendance at

Homecoming was 30.1 percent higher than the average home game.

The 2002 Homecoming game actually saw a dip in attendance figures. The crowd was about 760 less than the average game that season.

Western Michigan, NIU’s opponent in the 2007 Homecoming game, is 2-4, and lost 39-39 to Akron this past weekend.

The numbers don’t lie. In the last 10 years, Homecoming has produced a win 90 percent of the time. NIU usually outscores its opponent by 19.4 points, and the crowd is most likely the largest the Huskies will see in DeKalb for the season.

Those are just the numbers. Any coach will tell you that the numbers don’t determine the outcome.

That’s why they play the game.