Solar Storms in forecast

By Alan Edrinn

The solar storm cycle this year is predicted to be strong, but effects are not overly hazardous.

“You know when conditions are right [for solar storms] and when good chances are, but it doesn’t mean they will [occur],” said Dave Dooling, education and public outreach officer for the National Solar Observatory in New Mexico, a branch of the National Science Foundation.

There are a very low number of predictions on a day-to-day basis, said Philip Scherrer, professor of physics at Stanford University.

Solar storms come in 22-year cycles, in which every 11 years the sun’s poles will change. The solar magnetism from the sun is what causes these flares and solar storms. During the cycle, there is a maximum and minimum number of sun spots. During the minimum period, flares can be more powerful, Dooling said.

These spots are tracked using powerful space telescopes which help monitor active regions of the sun.

At the moment, there is some scientific understanding of solar magnetism, but it is not very in depth. Technology is being developed to give astronomers a more detailed look.

Satellites are very vulnerable to these storms because of the large amount of high voltage electrical equipment. Satellites are shut down to protect the equipment during a solar storm, Dooling said.

“Satellites can’t be moved to prevent damage; there’s no safe area in space,” Dooling said.

Earth is usually unaffected by solar storm activity.

“The protons from the solar wind interact with the upper atmosphere,” said NIU physics professor David Hedin. “The Earth’s magnetic field protects much of the surface.”

Humans also remain mostly unaffected by flare radiation.

“There is only radiation danger for astronauts, space craft and polar flights,” Scherrer said.

Other effects on the environment may include possible power grid problems, but the actual flares are not visible from the ground.

Little shielding can be done against the radiation to protect space craft and astronauts. The only method of shielding in space would be to put sacrificial material in the way. A couple of inches of aluminum or water can be used, but it is not very practical, Scherrer said.

The radiation can be stopped, but the protons from the storm can still be harmful, Hedin said.

“If I were an astronaut, I’m not sure I’d want to be up in space,” Hedin said.