Today is the first day of autumn, but winter months are quickly approaching.

Meteorologists use several methods to determine what type of season is likely to unfold. The primary methods use the climate model and the statistical model.

Climate models take weather information from around the world and compile trends to see what is above or below normal and the statistical model relates weather trends based on statistics from previous seasons or years.

“The climate model tends to be a complex process; we use the stats model by looking at situations in past years and compare them with what is happening in the current year,” NIU Staff Meteorologist Gilbert Sebenste said. “If the trends are close or identical then we can say with higher confidence that there will be a repeat of what has happened in the past,” he said.

Sebenste said meteorologists started looking at the stats model for this winter back in June and July and have not been able to get a clear idea of what winter has in store.

Illinois State Climatologist James R. Angel has a different prediction for this winter’s weather.

He is predicting a warm/dry winter because of the summer we experienced.

“If you look at historical records in Illinois, a warm/dry summer usually persists into the fall and winter seasons,” Angel said.

Talk of winter brings reminders of the brisk winds that often inundate the DeKalb area during the winter months.

“This will be my first winter experience in DeKalb, and I have heard that in the past classes have been canceled because of the wind chill, and the snow plows are very hectic and constantly running around campus trying to keep snow cleared off the streets and sidewalks,” said transfer student Naomi Israel , who has spent all of her winters in Chicago.

Nobody knows exactly what this winter will bring to DeKalb, however Sebenste recommended students keep watching forecasts and pay attention to trends.

If you are looking to vacation and escape the cold Illinois winter, January and February would be the best months to go because they are the coldest months of the year, Sebenste said.