My Picks for Super Sunday, and a plea for the Academy
February 22, 2005
All of the hype, all of the discussion, all of the controversy, all is coming to an end Sunday evening when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces the winners of the 2005 Academy Awards.
Although we live in a state where gambling is very illegal, we all know that the office pool can occur, so today you’ll find my picks at sure things, possible upsets, and interesting tidbits into picking your winners. Also, an interesting idea surrounding the never noticed or seen short form categories.
Best Picture
“The Aviator”
“Million Dollar Baby”
“Finding Neverland”
“Ray”
“Sideways”
Thoughts: “Sideways” is definitely a dark horse, but it will be a cold day in L.A. when the Academy awards another Best Picture Oscar to a comedy – especially over such a hot-button issue film like “Million Dollar Baby.”
“MDB” is my pick to win, even though “The Aviator” is the favorite right now. In fact, “MDB” could sweep all of the top five awards, it just makes that much of an impact on its audience.
Odds in favor of: “The Aviator”
My Pick: “Million Dollar Baby”
Best Director
Martin Scorsese – “The Aviator
Clint Eastwood – “Million Dollar Baby”
Alexander Payne – “Sideways”
Taylor Hackford – “Ray”
Mike Leigh – “Vera Drake”
Thoughts: Oh, poor Marty. A pity vote might be in store for America’s most prominent director to never win the big one. However, this year is shaping up just like 2003, when Scorsese’s “Gangs of New York” was nominated for a ton of Oscars and came away empty handed. It’s a sick joke that Marty’s been waiting so long, but he might just have to wait even longer. I’m going with Clint.
Odds in favor of: Martin Scorsese, “The Aviator.”
My Pick: Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby.”
Best Actor
Don Cheadle – “Hotel Rwanda”
Clint Eastwood – “Million Dollar Baby”
Jamie Foxx – “Ray”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Aviator”
Johnny Depp – “Finding Neverland”
Thoughts: Some important information: Clint Eastwood has never won an Oscar for acting. Could this mean that the Academy would finally grant him an acting Oscar, then reward Scorsese for his direction? This would definitely take care of Marty and Clint in the Academy’s eyes, and at their ages, they are definitely running out of time.
Not likely. Jamie Foxx has everything going for him, especially with Ray’s recent release onto DVD. But he’s young, and he will have many more strong performances to reward in the future. A Foxx defeat would be a major upset, and should it happen look for either Eastwood or the growing-stronger-by-the minute Don Cheadle to rob him.
Odds in favor of: Jamie Foxx – “Ray”
My Pick: Jamie Foxx – “Ray”
Coming on strong: Don Cheadle – “Hotel Rwanda”
Best Actress
Annette Bening – “Being Julia”
Catalina Sandino Moreno – “Maria Full of Grace”
Imelda Staunton – “Vera Drake”
Hilary Swank – “Million Dollar Baby”
Kate Winslet – “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”
Thoughts: A lock. Hilary Swank will win. Ignore the hype surrounding Annette Bening. Swank gave an even more dominating performance than her last winner, “Boys Don’t Cry.” I don’t see a possibility of her losing.
Odds in favor of: Hilary Swank – “MDB”
My Pick: Hilary Swank – “MDB”
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda – “The Aviator”
Thomas Haden Church – “Sideways”
Jamie Foxx – “Collateral”
Morgan Freeman – “Million Dollar Baby”
Clive Owen – “Closer”
Thoughts: Morgan Freeman appears the lock, but voters might want to reward “Sideways” for something come Sunday. That most likely will come with Virginia Madsen, but if someone is to upset Freeman, it will be Haden Church. I’d bet on Freeman with another solid, Academy pleasing performance. When it comes to Oscar, always bet against comedy.
Odds in favor of: Morgan Freeman – “MDB.”
My Pick: Morgan Freeman – “MDB.”
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett – “The Aviator”
Laura Linney – “Kinsey”
Virginia Madsen – “Sideways”
Sophie Okonedo – “Hotel Rwanda”
Natalie Portman – “Closer”
Thoughts: What is Natalie Portman even doing here? That’s for another column. This will come down to Blanchett and Madsen. Following the Oscar comedy rule, Blanchett should win, but these voters want to reward “Sideways” for something. Take a chance – take Madsen.
Odds in favor of: Cate Blanchett – “The Aviator.”
My Pick: Virginia Madsen – “Sideways.”
Should stay home on Sunday: Natalie Portman – “Closer.”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Before Sunset”
“Finding Neverland”
“Million Dollar Baby”
“The Motorcycle Diaries”
“Sideways”
Thoughts: “Sideways” took home the Writer’s Guild Award for Best Adapted Screenplay, making it a clear favorite. However, “Million Dollar Baby” was heralded by most critics as a flawless screenplay. According to the filmmakers, not one rewrite was required, not one extra page added for clarification. In other words, a flawless script. That has to mean something, so I’m going to take the upset.
Odds in favor of: “Sideways”
My Pick: “MDB”
Best Original Screenplay
“The Aviator”
“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”
“Hotel Rwanda”
“The Incredibles”
“Vera Drake”
Thoughts: “Eternal Sunshine” also took home a WGA, and I cross my fingers that the Oscar-neglected Charlie Kaufman finally wins the big one. However, we have an overlooked genocide film here, “Hotel Rwanda.” When in doubt, take real stories of Holocaust-like death. Also, John Logan’s “The Aviator” is also a quiet favorite here. Although a stockholder is told to never buy stock in a company just because you love its product, I’m going to have to break that rule. I’m all in for Charlie.
Odds in favor of: “Eternal Sunshine.”
Marcus’s Pick: “Eternal Sunshine.”
Coming Strong: Tie – “The Aviator,” “Hotel Rwanda.”
The Rest
The following are my picks for the extra categories. Unfortunately, a guess is my best in most of the short subject categories. Like most of the general public, I have not seen, and will most likely never have a chance to see most of these short films.
This is a terrible shame, and brings up a brilliant idea for the Academy. Each year, a CD is released after the Grammy nominations that includes most of the biggest nominated songs. It’s always a top seller each year, and brings already successful artists some extra cash.
Although this might not be a big moneymaker, why not package a DVD with all of the short films nominated for Oscars each year? Purchasers would get to see each short form documentary, live action short, and animated short. They could also include interviews with the creators of the big nominees each year and clips from their films, including some bonus information or footage that you couldn’t get anywhere else.
This year’s set could include a short documentary about the controversy over “Million Dollar Baby,” with interviews from the film’s creators. Each year people could buy this DVD to keep on their shelves, enabling them to revisit the drama surrounding each and every Oscar year. We do it with television, why should we ignore the ever-so-popular award shows?
Should you find yourself nodding in agreement with me, drop me an email ([email protected]) with your name and town. Each of your names will be sent in an email to the powers that be, and we’ll wait and see.
Moving on, here are the rest:
Art Direction
“The Aviator”
Cinematography
“The Passion of the Christ”
Costume Design
“Lemony Snickets”
Documentary Feature
“Tupac: Resurrection”
Documentary Short Subject
“Sister Rose’s Passion”
Animated Feature
“The Incredibles”
Film Editing
“The Aviator”
Foreign Language Film
“The Sea Inside”
Makeup
“The Passion of the Christ”
Music (Score)
“The Passion of the Christ”
Music (Song)
“Accidentally in Love” – Shrek
Short Film (Animated)
“Birthday Boy”
Short Film (Live Action)
“Little Terrorist”
Sound Editing
“The Incredibles”
Sound Mixing
“The Aviator”
Visual Effects
“Spider-Man 2”
For more on Marcus Leshock’s Oscar Picks, tune into NTC News this Thursday evening at 6 and 10 p.m. on Comcast Cable channel 14 or Channel 20 in the residence halls.