Who W.E. Think Will Win:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

-Johnny Depp – “Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”

Ben Kingsley – “House of Sand and Fog”

Jude Law – “Cold Mountain”

Bill Murray – “Lost in Translation”

Sean Penn – “Mystic River”

W.E. Pick … Sean Penn. Penn is clearly the front-runner here, with Murray coming in a relatively close second. Both actors took home Golden Globes, so there’s no help there. Since Penn was lauded for his performances in both “Mystic River” and “21 Grams,” look for him to pull in votes from fans of both films, propelling him to an easy finish with Oscar.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Alec Baldwin – “The Cooler’

Benicio Del Toro – “21 Grams”

Djimon Hounsou – “In America”

Tim Robbins – “Mystic River”

Ken Watanabe – “The Last Samurai”

W.E. Pick … Tim Robbins. It’s hard to come up with a scenario where Tim Robbins can lose here. Although “In America’s” Djimon Hounsou has the biggest chance to steal an Oscar, Robbins always has been a favorite in Hollywood. While Benicio Del Toro’s performance in “21 Grams” was captivating, Robbins was riveting as a grown-up victim of child abuse. Look for the Academy to reward Robbins for that.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Keisha Castle-Hughes – “What Rider”

-Diane Keaton – “Something’s Gotta Give”

Samantha Morton – “In America”

Charlize Theron – “Monster”

Naomi Watts – “21 Grams”

W.E. Pick … Charlize Theron. Whether the hype is warranted is not in question; Theron appears unstoppable. While the Academy has stunned others before by awarding little tykes (Keisha Castle-Hughes is the youngest nominee in this category ever at 14), Theron being robbed would lead to outrage in Hollywood. She’ll take it home.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Shohreh Aghdashloo – “House of Sand and Fog”

Patricia Clarkson – “Pieces of April”

Marcia Gay Harden – “Mystic River”

Holly Hunter – “Thirteen”

Renée Zellweger – “Cold Mountain”

W.E. Pick … Renee Zellweger. While Patricia Clarkson and Holly Hunter are critical darlings, Zellweger just may get the pity vote, seeing as “Cold Mountain” was relatively snubbed. Zellweger should pick up the Oscar that she has been so close to winning, with Holly Hunter in a close second. Look for Hunter to gather all of the votes that would have been given to “Thirteen’s” Evan Rachel Wood had she been nominated. Zellweger in a squeaker.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

“Brother Bear”

“Finding Nemo”

“The Triplets of Belleville”

W.E. Pick … “Finding Nemo.” While “The Triplets of Belleville” is fresh in people’s minds, the year’s highest-grossing film, “Finding Nemo,” should win it in a landslide. If there would ever be a lock to win an Oscar, “Nemo” is it.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

“City of God”

-“Cold Mountain”

“Girl with a Pearl Earring”

“Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”

“Seabiscuit”

W.E. Pick … “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.” “Master” was royally snubbed in all of the acting categories, and the film was critically lauded for its sweeping establishing shots. Its saturated colors on the open seas should propel it to victory. While a film like “City of God” warrants the award much stronger, we worry that not enough voters have seen it. Look for “Master” to pick up the photography award.

DIRECTING

“City of God” (Fernando Meirelles)

“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (Peter Jackson)

“Lost in Translation” (Sofia Coppola)

“Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” (Peter Weir)

“Mystic River” (Clint Eastwood)

W.E. Pick … Peter Jackson. While we’d love to see Fernando Meirelles take it home for “City of God,” Peter Jackson is due. There will be a lot of whiny, tear-filled geeks if Jackson is snubbed again. Look for the Academy to award Jackson for the last of the LOTR series.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Balseros”

“Capturing the Friedmans”

“The Fog of War”

“My Architect”

“The Weather Underground”

W.E. Pick … “The Fog of War.” This category just may be too close to call. “The Fog of War” most likely will catch the attention of most Academy voters because of its controversial topic, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara and the United States’ close calls with nuclear war. While “Capturing the Friedmans” won the top prize at Sundance in 2003, look for “War” to pull off the upset.

FILM EDITING

“City of God”

“Cold Mountain”

“The Lord of the RIngs: The Return of the King”

“Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”

-“Seabiscuit”

W.E. Pick … “City of God.” While “Seabiscuit” may have wowed audiences with its thrilling horse races, “City of God” used manic jump cuts to illustrate the intensity of street gangs and drug trade in Rio De Janiero. With its four nominations, look for “City of God” to sneak away with something here.

BEST PICTURE

“The Lord of the RIngs: The Return of the King”

“Lost in Translation”

“Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”

“Mystic River”

“Seabiscuit”

W.E. Pick … “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.” Once again, this franchise is due (see above for crying geek theory). While “Lost in Translation” and “Mystic River” are very close seconds, we feel that the academy would like to put the cast of “Rings” up on the stage for one last hurrah before retiring this extremely successful franchise. Look for a parade of geeks on Oscar night.

VISUAL EFFECTS

-“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”

“Master and COmmander: The Far Side of the World”

“Pirates of the Caribbean” The Curse of the Black Pearl”

W.E. Pick … “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.” We really love the work done on “Pirates,” but “King” is really unstoppable in this category. The final battle sequences of this film are jaw dropping. It is more likely the Kodak Theatre implode during another annoying Billy Crystal rendition than “Rings” lose this category. Bet your life on it.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

“American Splendor”

“City of God”

“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”

“Mystic River”

“Seabiscuit”

W.E. Pick … “Mystic River.” While some upsets could be afoot with the critical darling “Splendor” and the box office success of “Seabiscuit,” Hollywood really loves Brian Helgeland. His adaptation of the Dennis Lehane novel was contrite and to the point. Look for Helgeland to take it home for “Mystic River.”

-WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

“The Barbarian Invasions”

“Dirty Pretty Things”

“Finding Nemo”

“In America”

“Lost in Translation”

W.E. Pick … “Lost in Translation.” While “In America” is clearly the most emotional, personal and audience-engaging script in this category, the academy is going to want to send Sofia Coppola home with something. Look for father Francis to threaten another “Godfather” sequel if the Academy doesn’t comply. All kidding aside, Coppola is another critic’s darling, look for her to follow up her Golden Globe win and steal one here.