NIU men’s basketball player Marcus Smallwood said it best during the Huskies’ media day before this season. When asked about NIU being named the favorite to win the MAC West Division and the MAC tournament, Smallwood replied, “That’s just paper. That’s based on what you did last year.”

Sixteen games into the 2003-’04 campaign, Smallwood looks like a genius while his Huskies squad just keeps on proving him right.

Just past the mid-point, the preseason favorites to win the MAC find themselves 7-9 overall and 2-4 in conference play (the only record that matters).

Last season, the Huskies finished second in the MAC West Division with an 11-7 record and made it to the semifinals of the MAC tournament. It was their first winning season since they finished 20-10 in 1996.

This season, the two-faced monster known as the NIU men’s basketball team is heading down the path of major disappointment.

With 12 conference games remaining in the season, the Huskies would have to finish 9-3 just to finish with the same MAC record as last season.

Seeing as how the team can’t win on the road (1-9 road record this season), that’s five of the 12 games that are eliminated. That leaves a possible seven more wins for NIU.

On the other hand, the Huskies, who are 7-0 at home, have seven more home games this season. Of those remaining home games, four are against Toledo, Kent State, Ball State and Miami-Ohio. Those four teams have a combined 16-5 MAC record, 35-18 overall this season.

Beating teams that have a winning record is another thing the Huskies have a hard time doing. Of its seven wins, NIU has just one quality win over an above-.500. Division I team – Illinois-Chicago (12-6). Albeit an impressive win against one of the nation’s top mid-majors that should have served as a stepping stone for the remainder of the season, it was just one quality win.

The only other win over an above-.500 program came against NAIA Division II St. Francis-Indiana, which now is 12-9.

So that leaves three games against .500-or-below teams at home for the rest of the season. Not a good outlook for a struggling team looking for a win any possible way.

Three, maybe four more wins is not going to be enough to win the MAC West, since Western Michigan and Toledo each have five conference wins already.

So, with a tough road ahead in a quest to win a MAC championship, the Huskies need to start winning – and winning multiple games in a row – against above-.500 teams and on the road.

First up, a meeting with Ball State on the road tonight. BSU comes into the game one game above .500 and 4-1 in the MAC.

The odds don’t stack up too well on paper for the Huskies, but then again, it’s just paper.