Although it appears as though communism has collapsed, an NIU professor said the Soviet Union is in a very unstable period in their history.

Associate Pofessor of political science Dan Kempton had some observations on the outlook of the Soviet Union.

“No one’s really sure whether the Soviet Union will exist next week, let alone next year,” Kempton said, referring to the stability of the Soviet Union as a whole.

“Economically and strategically, it makes sense for the Soviet Republics to stay together,” Kempton said. “Ukraine and Russia are rich in raw materials. The other republics don’t have these things and would want to keep relations with Ukraine and Russia.”

Kempton said Armenia would need the protection of Russia against nearby Islamic groups.

Also, minority problems are foreseen by Kempton with the new political structure of the Soviet Union. “It doesn’t help minorities. It’s most likely to create violent conflicts in the future,” he said.

“The smaller republics have two major choices: maintain link with Russia or find new trading partners,” Kempton said. The latter will be the most difficult of the two choices because they will disrupt all existing trade links, he said.

Kempton said current Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev’s power will only decrease as the individual republics’ power increases. “As of now, the combined power of the republics’ presidents is more than that of Gorbachev,” Kempton said.

Russia is the only republic which will have real influence, he said. “Russia has a large population, mineral wealth and great military capacity. At a minimum, Russia will be a regional power,” said Kempton.