The last few weeks have been among the most turbulent ever recorded in the Middle East.
It’s not exactly a region that stands out for being peaceful, but it has been a long time since such a high scale conflict was seen. Thousands of deaths, the global economy in check and more than a third of the planet in an energy crisis; these are just some of the things left by the war between Iran and the U.S.
There is much speculation and little certainty. There is talk of an invasion in the east by the Kurds, a special amphibious operation on the island of Kharg – where the Iranian infrastructure that exports 90% of the oil extracted from Persian lands is located – or simply more bombing until the Salafist government is morally broken.
But at this point in the war, President Donald Trump has promised and preached victory more times than he can count, though it is more of a child’s reaction when he loses than a real statement.
Beyond the massacres in the protests at the beginning of the year, the Iranian regime has committed all kinds of atrocities against its population and the international community. For 25 years, they have been developing a large, threatening nuclear program.
They have financed terrorist groups all over the world, including indirectly Chavista collectives in Venezuela, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, among others. Iran has allied itself with totalitarian regimes such as Russia and China, and on several occasions helped financially support others, such as Venezuela and Cuba.
Iran has threatened every one of its neighbors, as well as declared war on the West.
This war is not just a declaration of enmity to the Western bloc states; it is also a declaration against the fundamental principles and values on which we are guided. It is not just a war against our country, it is a rule against our way of life, what we believe, what we defend or what we live.
Iran has been waging war against our belief system, directly or indirectly, for more than a half-century, and that is why the regime must fall. That doesn’t mean that war is the best solution, but during the last 50 years, the West has been trying to negotiate with Iran, and it is just not possible to agree.
For the U.S., and the people here, Iran may never have posed a threat, but for Israel it is an existential issue. But many more countries would benefit from a democratic Iran, beginning with all of its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, the Caucasus and Central Asia. The problem of this war shouldn’t be why we fight, because historically and politically there are reasons, it is how this war has been fought and how it has been justified.
Unfortunately, rather than regime downfall, the Trump administration has left things as they were, but with several thousand more dead and tensions red.
The Trump administration has grossly underestimated its enemy’s determination, and the strategic objectives of winning. Iran need not generate American casualties, nor counterattack by destroying its allies; the Iranian victory consists of its survival. If the regime of the ayatollahs achieves peace without falling, they will have won the war, or at least they will have been spared.
On the other hand, the Trump administration finds itself at a crossroads because of its own incompetence. If they simply withdraw now, the blow to morale and reputation would almost guarantee a democratic government for the next four years.
Not to mention the economic and moral costs of leaving Iran fully aware that they can block the Strait of Hormuz without consequences.
But if they stay, they will have to risk even more military assets, and the U.S. have already reached the point where it is impossible to achieve the proposed strategic objectives with just a poaching bombing. Hence, the subsequent operations would entail even more deaths on the U.S. side, and more economic costs.
That wouldn’t guarantee Iran’s defeat, as it has already been seen that even without all the political and military leadership, and with a reduced arsenal, the Khamenei regime still doesn’t give in to any of the demands of the Trump administration.
Iran is a rival of considerable size and strength, with one of the world’s largest and most sophisticated missile arsenals. No matter how many times Trump claims that they are crushing their enemy, every day that passes Iran proves more and more that it is capable of inflicting damage, be it a couple of planes, demystifying the tale of American invulnerability.
In an alternative universe, where the operation would have been coordinated with NATO, with clear goals and steps to achieve the liberation of the Iranian people and the change to a democratic government, we would be talking about one of the most successful interventions in history, since it is known that militarily NATO had the capacity to win this war.
Instead, operation “Epic Fury” would go down in history as one of the biggest fiascos in modern U.S. military history, and a further item on Trump’s list of international fools.
