West Region: Round of 64

1 Gonzaga vs. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson: Gonzaga

Last season saw the first upset of a No. 16 seed over a No. 1 seed in NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament history. Gonzaga is the last team I’d expect to lose in the first round, despite Fairleigh Dickinson’s tendency to light it up from 3-point land. The Bulldogs should win handily as the better all-around team.

8 Syracuse vs. 9 Baylor: Syracuse 

I don’t think Baylor will produce enough offense to overcome Syracuse’s defense, which is ranked within the top-25 in the nation in adjusted defensive rating. The Bears, who ranked third in offensive rebounding percentage, will need to exploit Syracuse’s defensive rebounding struggles and capitalize on their own offensive rebounding prowess to win the first-round match-up.

5 Marquette vs. 12 Murray State: Murray State 

This will game will be a headliner because of one match-up: Markus Howard versus Ja Morant. Howard has the better team in Marquette, but Murray State will have the best player in Morant, who I think will be enough to get Murray State its first NCAA tournament win since 2012. 

4 Florida State vs. 13 Vermont: Florida State

Similar to the Baylor vs. Syracuse match-up, I just don’t see Vermont performing well enough offensively to beat Florida State. The Seminoles are having their best season in program history and I expect that to continue into the round of 32. 

6 Buffalo vs. 11 Arizona State: Buffalo 

The reigning Mid-American Conference champions are one of the most well-rounded teams in the country. The Bulls are top-50 in both adjusted offensive and defensive rating. While Arizona State is a good team, Buffalo is simply better and should win in a tightly contested game. 

3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Northern Kentucky: Texas Tech

Northern Kentucky is a dangerous team because of its willingness to share the ball, seventh in the nation in assists, and ability to make shots from beyond the arc. Texas Tech is too dominant defensively to lose this match-up and has enough offense behind its scorings guards led by Jarrett Culver to carry them on the glamorous end of the floor. 

7 Nevada vs. 10 Florida: Nevada 

Nevada’s experience should carry it to a victory. While Florida is explosive, the reliability and consistency of the Wolf Pack’s veterans on both ends of the floor, top-35 in adjusted offensive and defensive rating, shouldn’t be overlooked. 

2 Michigan vs. 15 Montana 

Michigan has the best defense in the nation and Montana turns the ball over too much for a team that isn’t highly productive offensively. The Wolverines will grind this game out en route to their attempt to get back to the national title game. 

West Region winner: Gonzaga

Gonzaga has the makings of a team that should compete for the national championship. They’re experienced, balanced on both ends of the floor with the top ranking in the nation in adjusted offensive rating and top-10 in adjusted defensive rating, and outside of a shocking loss to Saint Mary’s in the WCC Championship, have consistently looked like one of the best teams in the country.

I’d take the Bulldogs in a potential Gonzaga and Michigan match-up.