DeKALB | While some may look forward to fall rain showers or the blistering cold of winter, they may be disappointed this year.

According to NIU Staff Meteorologist Gilbert Sebenste, the rest of the fall season should be drier than usual, as should the first half of winter.

“Seventy to 90 percent of the time we are in a strong La Nina, the early portions of the winters tend to be dry,” Sebenste said.

La Nina refers to the waters off the coast of South America and westward through the Pacific Ocean and are significantly cooler than average, Sebenste said.

“This changes the jet stream patterns in the northern hemisphere,” Sebenste said.

Additionally, Sebenste said the first half of the winter will be so warm that the colder weather we see later may not knock down the seasonal average much.

“NIU Weather is forecasting a warmer and dry first half of the winter and somewhat wetter but still above average temperatures for the rest of the winter,” Sebenste said.

While it is hard to say which month will start to have colder weather, Sebenste said he thinks it will cool down around January and certainly by February.

Sebenste forecasts the higher than regular temperatures for winter because of the jet stream coming up from the southwest in a classic La Nina setup for much of the winter.

“That brings in warmer and drier air,” Sebenste said. “Later in the winter, it can drop farther south, closer to the Gulf of Mexico, to start bringing up storm systems for the back half of the winter.”

Also, Sebenste said people might expect less snow, but not because of the warmer temperatures.

“The jet stream could take the systems and send them north of us,” Sebenste said.

For the next two months, Sebenste said we can look forward to drier and warmer weather with occasional bouts of average to below average cold.

For more information on NIU Weather, visit http://weather.admin.niu.edu.