Favored White Sox not likely to repeat

By STEVE NITZ

Last season, after finishing 72-90 in 2007, expectations were low for the Chicago White Sox. But, as we all know, the team ended up prevailing and winning the AL Central, beating Minnesota 1-0 in the one-game playoff.

The tables are turned. Chicago is now one of the favorites in the division. The thing is, and let me say first that I am a White Sox fan, I don’t see them repeating.

It will take more than the 89 games the Sox won last year to take the AL Central title this season. And the team didn’t really improve over the off-season.

Will Carlos Quentin put up the same numbers? Same for Gavin Floyd and John Danks. What will the Sox get from the four and five spots in the rotation? Those are the big question marks before the season starts in a month.

Say what you want about Javier Vazquez, who got traded to Atlanta over the winter, but I always thought the fans in Chicago were too hard on him. Yes, he’ll never be an ace, but he’ll go out there every fifth day and give you 200 innings and still give you a halfway decent ERA in possibly the best hitters park in the American League.

Take away his last few starts of last season when Ozzie Guillen used a four-man rotation, and his ERA looks a lot better. Ozzie made a mistake putting guys on three-days rest in September.

Putting guys on three-days rest never does and never will work. Fans should have put a lot more blame on Ozzie and not Vazquez. I still think that if Guillen stuck with the five-man rotation, the Sox wouldn’t have had to wait until the one game playoff to clinch the division.

Is somebody like Clayton Richard or Jeff Marquez going to replace Vazquez’s production? I don’t think so.

Another guy on the pitching staff I worry about is Danks. Yes, he had a good year last year and was phenomenal in the division clincher against the Twins. But he also threw 63 more innings than in 2007. Often when pitchers throw 30 more innings than they did the previous season, they either get hurt or see a big increase in ERA.

Some pitchers did this in 2007 and paid for it last year: Tom Gorzelanny (was terrible), Ian Kennedy (see Gorzelanny) and Dustin McGowan (shoulder surgery). Bottom line is, I can’t count on Danks staying healthy this season.

I still think the Sox will have a decent year and finish with around 85-86 wins. Cleveland had a lot of injuries last season, and I expect them to bounce back, and Minnesota has a good young team that could improve on last season’s win total.

Eighty-five wins might be good enough to win the weak NL Central, but if the Sox win 85 games, they will be playing golf on Oct. 5.