“The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” will soon be getting a pale transformation.

After nearly 20 years since he took over Johnny Carson’s job, Jay Leno will relinquish his hosting duties of the late-night hit in 2009, and give them to fellow late-night personality and pride of Ireland, Conan O’Brien.

But can Conan really take the highly prestigious reigns of television’s most honored talk show? Can he stand where Steve Allen and Jack Paar once stood before Conan was even born? Will Jay Leno’s audience be able to appreciate Conan’s infamous skit, “The Masturbating Bear?”

It’s not certain what will happen the first time Joel Godard eerily announces “The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien,” but I am hoping that day never comes.

“Late Night With Conan O’Brien” is easily the best late-night talk show around. The lovable, self-pitying oaf has transformed from a virtual unknown who wrote the monorail episode of “The Simpsons” to the hero of collegian nerds everywhere. His show has evolved over the past 15 years into the premiere source of intelligent, yet equally immature humor.

So it is with great regret that I say Conan O’Brien succeeding Jay Leno in hosting “The Tonight Show” will be a disaster, but not in the way you may think.

It goes without saying that Jay Leno really isn’t that funny, and anybody besides the big-chinned doofus would make a far better host. If Andrew Dice Clay replaced him and used innuendo-filled rhymes during the whole show, it would still be a better show. But for some reason, Leno has pulled in the biggest ratings for the past 11 years, according to an article in “Variety.”

It takes a “certain person” (5.7 million of them) to appreciate the low-brow humor that Jay Leno brings to the table. Let’s face it, Leno’s claim to fame is a 15-minute bit on newspaper clippings. I do suppose his comedy is more universal to mainstream America, but then again, so is “Two and a Half Men.”

When Conan takes over, will he not conform to these same comedic standards? I cannot see Leno’s older-aged audience that enjoys rehashed segments like “Celebrity Jeopardy” with Gilbert Gottfried to be as entertained with horny manatees or “In The Year 2000…” The 18- to 34-year-old demographic that late-night toward whom talk shows are tis actually smarter than the writers at “The Tonight Show” will have you believe.

Although it may be an oxymoron, O’Brien’s typical “shtick” will undoubtedly be dumbed down for the broader and more advertiser-friendly primetime spot.

Since Andy Richter left the shown in 2000, Conan uses the audience in the place of his former sidekick. The viewer is essentially the Ed McMahon of the show, as Conan repeatedly improvises his self-deprecating humor that makes him much more relatable than any of the other late-night personalities. Conan hosting “The Tonight Show” may be less of how Conan usually acts and more of how NBC would like Conan to act.

Something that no one is taking into consideration is the undesirable side effects that will go along with Conan leaving his post. The most important question to ask is: Who is going to replace Conan? In an article from last year, MSNBC.com reports that the frontrunner to replace Conan is everyone’s least favorite SNL-alum, Jimmy Fallon.

Having to see Jimmy Fallon’s strategically disheveled hair on television five nights a week sounds like sweeps week in hell. I would rather watch “Taxi” looped for the rest of eternity than ever have to see “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon.”

And more importantly, what is Jay going to do? The feeling at NBC seems to be that Leno is being phased out, rather than passing the torch to Conan. There is speculation that he may go to ABC, where he will replace the highly underappreciated Jimmy Kimmel. He may go to CNN where he would take over “Larry King Live,” but only after King’s robo-heart gives way. Also, he could go to the highly tasteful FOX network, but that would mean no more “Seinfeld” reruns. No one is fully comprehending the cruel chain reaction that will take place.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like Conan isn’t qualified for the job, because he rightfully is. It’s just that “The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien” will not be in the same comedic realm as “Late Night with Conan O’Brien.”

2009 is still a ways away, so we have time to prepare for the late-night television massacre that will occur. I just hope that in another 20 years, we won’t be introduced to “The Tonight Show with Carson Daly.”