Mich. may not be as important for Dems.
January 15, 2008
10:13 P.M. CST | Mitt Romney is the projected winner of the Michigan primary, followed by John McCain in second and Mike Huckabee in third.
The Michigan primary is the next hoop to jump through in the 2008 presidential campaign.
Michigan is often a bellwether state whose results can be an indicator of Midwest voting trends. The makeup of Michigan, a blend of liberal and conservative thinking, includes the metropolis of Detroit, two major college campuses (the University of
Michigan in Ann Arbor and Michigan State University in East Lansing), suburban towns and rural farmland.
Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney are each hoping their ties to the state will win them the primary: McCain with his Michigan primary win during the 2000 primaries, and Romney, a Michigan native, whose father was a former governor of the state.
Romney absolutely needs Michigan. A loss there, after spending millions on the state and losing Iowa and New Hampshire, suggests his campaign needs reevaluating.
Recent Michigan polls show Romney slightly in the lead over McCain. Though I dislike Romney, I believe he’ll take this one. I think the family tie might help him into the winner’s circle. But as the election has been unpredictable thus far, McCain could come rally his former supporters and take Michigan.
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who more recently started campaigning in Michigan, will most likely come in third.
Because Michigan violated the time frame in which it could hold its primary, the Democratic and Republican National Committees revoked delegates for the candidates to receive, which go toward determining the winner of the party’s nomination.
The Democratic winner of Michigan will receive no delegates, while the Republican winner will only receive half of the regular amount. Delegates, like electors, go on to vote for each primary’s winner during the party’s convention, where a party candidate is chosen.
Democratic candidate and former senator John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama both pledged to withdraw from the Michigan primary; their names will not be on the ballot. Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the only front-runner on the ballot.
This makes Michigan important for the GOP and pretty much worthless for the Dems.
UPCOMING PRIMARIES
The upcoming South Carolina primary could decide the fates of candidates from each party. John Edwards is banking on the state, after coming in second in Iowa and third in New Hampshire. Edwards is also a native of South Carolina. His campaign could be done if he doesn’t win.
GOP candidate and former senator Fred Thompson, who has recently shown signs of life, has focused solely on South Carolina. If Thompson doesn’t win there, he’s definitely done.
Former mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani also needs a state to stay in the race: Florida. Though Giuliani led national polls for a long period of time, his support seems to have lessened in the past few months. In the Iowa caucuses, he came in sixth, after even Sen. Ron Paul.
Giuliani’s fourth place showing in New Hampshire was only slightly better. Florida will be crucial for the former GOP front-runner’s campaign.