With the recent weather fluctuations, it’s not as easy to know what to expect in the coming weeks.

NIU staff meteorologist Gilbert Sebenste weighed in possibilities for this winter’s weather and discussed whether this season will be any different than past winters.

Northern Star: What months are considered the “winter” months?

Gilbert Sebenste: Officially, “meteorological” winter runs from December 1 through March 1. Astronomically, winter begins around December 21 and ends around March 21 each year, but that varies slightly every year. This year, astronomical winter begins at 12:08 a.m. on December 22.

NS: Are we going to experience any extreme weather this winter?

GS: A lot of snow and very low temperatures. Our climate models do indicate that while we may be a bit warmer than average this winter, we will see occasional wild temperature fluctuations. If we get a lot of snow cover on the ground, say more than four inches, we run the risk of seeing some nights drop well below zero on the thermometer in January.

NS: Overall, do you think we will see a lot of snow? What is your estimate?

GS: The current forecast is for a better likelihood of above-average rain and snowfall this winter, although data suggests that December through early February could be the worst of it. I can’t forecast amounts, but the average is right around 32 inches per season.

NS: Are we going to see more snow than last year?

GS: The latest data suggest that it may be snowier than last year. With a warm Gulf of Mexico and very cold air up in Canada, there is definitely trouble brewing and the models have caught on to that.

NS: Do you think we’re going to have any big snow storms this year?

GS: On average, we get three snowstorms that exceed four inches. I think we’ll get at least a few good snowstorms this winter, each producing more than a half foot of snow.

NS: Do you think we’ll have a white Christmas?

GS: Typically, the first four-inch snow occurs within a week of Christmas Day. Our chances are right around 50 percent that we’ll have one. We haven’t been doing so well over the last five years, and if the forecasts of early snow verify, we have a better shot to have one this year.