It’s an old saying that you can’t control life and you only have power over what you do. Everything else is out of your control.

The football teams of the MAC could take this lesson to heart as five MAC West teams can statistically win a berth to the MAC title game.

Ball State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Toledo and NIU all have a chance at earning a trip to Detroit for the MAC championship game Dec. 1. Of MAC West teams, only Eastern Michigan has been eliminated from the hunt.

With five teams bunched together, NIU coach Joe Novak is reminded of how the MAC used to be before any one team became dominate.

“It just shows that there’s not a super-team in the division,” Novak said. “This is what the MAC used to be like. Top to bottom it’s a much more competitive division.”

The nightmare situation: Ball State

Out of the five teams, Ball State faces the longest odds at earning the trip to Dec. 1 game.

With a conference record of 3-3, Ball State would need to win both of its last games against EMU and CMU.

Ball State would then need NIU and Bowling Green to beat Toledo. After that, the Cardinals would need CMU to beat WMU and for WMU to beat NIU.

Only if this string of events were to occur would Ball State, WMU, CMU, NIU and Toledo all be in a 5-3 in the MAC.

This situation could be called “The Nightmare” for the MAC. In this scenario, Ball State would have beaten NIU, WMU and CMU but lost to Toledo.

Toledo beat Ball State earlier this season, but would have losses to CMU and NIU. WMU would have a win against NIU, while CMU would have beaten WMU.

If by some chance these circumstances were to occur, the MAC would have to take a long look at its rules on tiebreakers to figure out what to do.

The rules

If two teams in the MAC West tie, the division title is given to the team that won in head-to-head competition. NIU tied for the MAC West last year, but since it lost to Toledo, the Rockets went to the MAC championship.

If more than two teams are tied and the tie-breaker does not settle the ranking, then teams are then ranked by head-to-head competition. The team with the best record against teams within the MAC West would be given the title.

If teams are still tied, then teams are ranked by cross-division winning percentage. NIU would have a .500 record against the MAC East after beating Miami-Ohio but falling to Akron.

If by some crazy twist of fate teams are still tied above the MAC West, the final tiebreaker would be a head-to-head match.

Western Michigan: Still a long shot

WMU’s chances of playing a game in December look a little better than those of Ball State.

With a MAC record of 4-2, WMU would need to beat CMU and NIU in the next two weeks.

WMU would also need Toledo to lose against NIU and Bowling Green in order to pull off a miracle season.

Central Michigan: More probable

CMU’s odds of winning the MAC West title are more practical than those of Ball State and WMU.

With a 4-2 record, CMU would need to win its last two games against WMU and Ball State to improve its record to 6-2. CMU then needs NIU and Toledo to both lose one game.

Toledo would have a 6-2 record, like CMU in this scenario, but CMU beat Toledo earlier in the season, hence giving the Chippewas a tiebreaker advantage.

NIU: Championship goes through Toledo

While Ball State, WMU and CMU’s fates rely on circumstances they cannot control, there are two teams in the MAC West that control their destiny: NIU and Toledo.

“If you told me on Aug. 1 that we would still have control of our own destiny in November, I would have been thrilled,” Novak said. “But we still have to go out there and get it done.”

NIU comes into next week’s game against Toledo with a record of 4-2 in the MAC.

If NIU produces a win against Toledo – which would be the Huskies’ first in more than a decade – it will give NIU an edge over both CMU and Toledo in the MAC West.

This is because, in the event that the Huskies win Wednesday, all three teams would have records of 5-2 (If CMU wins its game against WMU), but NIU would have beaten both CMU and Toledo. Thus NIU would have the tiebreaker edge over both teams.

If NIU can then produce a win against WMU the next week it will lock up its first MAC West title.

Toledo: Still on top

Toledo isn’t helpless, however, in the current “MAC scramble” situation.

If Toledo beats both NIU and BG, it will secure the MAC West title for another year and will leave Huskie fans frustrated during another long offseason.

Toledo also faces a situation in which it can beat NIU, but lose to BG and still win the MAC West Title. This can happen if CMU loses one of its last two games against WMU or Ball State.

What the whole MAC situation boils down to is this: NIU needs to win.

If the Huskies can produce a solid offensive attack, muster up a strong defense effort and keep a strong special teams attack for the next two games, they will win the MAC West title.

With that the Huskies would finally earn their first trip to the MAC Championship game where they will face … well, that’s another story for another day as Bowling Green, Miami-Ohio, Akron and Ohio could all possibly win the MAC East.