Gas prices have returned above the $2 mark nationwide, promising to pinch consumer budgets ahead of the holidays and raise other costs across the economy.

A gallon of regular unleaded averaged almost $2.04 nationwide, about three cents shy of the May record, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Monday.

With crude oil trading above $50 a barrel, analysts expect even higher fuel prices in the coming weeks in a run-up at gas pumps that’s usually reserved for the spring and summer months.

The impact of higher fuel prices extends well beyond what consumers pay to fill their tanks.

Airlines and trucking companies are struggling to absorb the costs. So is just about any business that depends on transportation of its products.

“We’ll see that price increase on all the consumer goods that we buy,” said Mark Baxter, director of Southern Methodist University’s Maguire Energy Institute. “I don’t think that’s been passed through yet.”

Prices could still jump an additional 25 cents this fall to catch up with $50 crude oil prices, Baxter said.

A tight market for crude oil and refined products is expected to pressure prices for months.

Inventories of distillate fuels, such as heating oil and diesel, are already at worrisome levels even before the cold weather that usually sends costs up.

Diesel fuel prices broke ahead of gasoline prices this summer and have been setting daily records for weeks.

The higher costs have pummeled trucking firms that carry most consumer goods across the nation.

While some companies have been able to raise prices, others have been forced to shut down and cut jobs in the face of rising fuel bills.

When diesel fuel last hit all-time highs in 2000, for instance, “that was one of the prime reasons that launched the downturn in the economy,” said Todd Spencer, executive vice president of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, a trade group representing 116,000 trucking firms.

Every 10-cent increase in the price of fuel leads 1,000 small trucking companies to close their doors, Spencer said. The price spikes of 2000 sparked a wave of bankruptcies in the industry, leading to constrained trucking capacity and higher prices today.

“People have fared a little better with this run-up in fuel prices,” Spencer said. “But it’s been sustained for months now and we really have no assurance we’ve seen the top yet.”

This fall’s spike in gasoline prices can be attributed in part to crude oil prices spiking due to worries about the world’s oil-production capacity and political instability.

Hurricane Ivan’s rampage through the Gulf of Mexico also shut vital oil production facilities and blocked imports of gasoline and other products from U.S. shores.

Oil for November delivery traded as high as a record $55.33 a barrel on Monday, before falling to $53.67, down $1.26 for the day, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

With the holiday shopping season approaching, higher gasoline prices are threatening to cut even further into retail sales growth.

Consumers are already spending far more to fill up their gas tanks, cool their homes in warm weather and heat them in the winter.

“You’ve definitely seen a reduction in the consumption of other products because of increasing energy costs,” said Peyton Feltus, president of Randolph Risk Management in Dallas.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week that higher energy prices have had a noticeable effect on the economy.

But energy prices on an inflation-adjusted basis remain lower than they were in the 1970s and early 1980s, limiting the negative consequences this time around.

The higher fuel prices – largely driven by demand – can also be seen as a sign of an improving economy in the United States and abroad, said David Freyman, a refining expert at Barnes & Click Inc., a Dallas-based consultancy.

Summer demand for diesel fuel, for instance, is driven by the trucking industry along with equipment for the construction of roads and commercial buildings.

“Overall consumption is up in the U.S.,” he said. “Political leanings notwithstanding, the economic activity is higher than it had been two years ago.”

The biggest surprise factor in the oil market has been the rapid growth in global oil demand, especially from China, sparking competition with the United States for petroleum products.

“There are fewer barrels available on a worldwide basis to come in here and plug up holes,” Freyman said. “We’re almost on our own for this year.”