It’s March Madness – Hollywood style. This Sunday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences hands out the Oscars, everyone’s favorite award. Sure, most spend the evening screaming at the idiot voters when their nominee comes up empty, but we all tune in every year to see our favorite celebrities spend time crying while thanking their lawyers. Here are my picks for this year’s “Big Eight” categories:

Actor

There’s no doubt that Jack Nicholson was the favorite coming off of his Golden Globe win, but votes certainly change with time. “The Pianist” has picked up loads of steam over the last eight weeks; Adrien Brody could be a big surprise. Nicolas Cage deserves this more than any other in the category. He played two roles in “Adaptation” more convincingly than any of the others played one. However, Daniel Day-Lewis just picked up that Screen Actors Guild award, which could tell you a lot about what the voters are thinking. Look for Day-Lewis to take one home; insiders like him and so does the public.

Actress

Nicole Kidman could win; it could be her time. Diane Lane deserves it over the rest, but “Unfaithful” is old even to video stores, which will hurt her big time. Salma Hayek deserves a nod, but popularity isn’t in her corner this year. Voters like Julianne Moore, but her two nominations may split her votes. Zellweger did win the SAG award, but I’d count on Kidman to take it home.

Supporting Actor

It’s been awhile since such a huge favorite was seen in this category. At this moment, Chris Cooper seems unbeatable for his role in “Adaptation.” Maybe, just maybe, voters will feel attracted to Ed Harris in “The Hours,” especially since he was robbed of the award he deserved for “Pollock.” But Cooper is almost a lock in this one.

Supporting Actress

The Catherine Zeta-Jones bandwagon is plowing forward. She might seem like a cinch, but she just might end up splitting the “Chicago” vote with Queen Latifah. If that does happen, look for Meryl Streep to pull off the upset for her role in “Adaptation.” It was a change of direction for Streep, which the Academy likes. While she is an Academy favorite, look for the voters to award “Chicago” with something. Zeta-Jones will win.

Original Screenplay

This category has more foreign features than most years, and this could change the way the votes come in. “Gangs of New York” is a decent period piece, which the Academy loves to honor. But, I’ll pick Pedro Almodovar’s “Talk to Her” for its rich structure and big critical praise.

Adapted Screenplay

If Charlie Kaufman doesn’t win for “Adaptation,” the Academy should disband immediately. He was robbed in ’99 for his extremely original “Being John Malkovich.” “Adaptation” is one of the most original, thought-provoking screenplays ever written, so he has to be a lock.

Director

If you asked me to pick in January, I’d tell you that Martin Scorsese is a no-brainer. However, things have changed over the past weeks. “The Pianist” has been gaining hype fast. Roman Polanski could be a tremendous upset. What a way for Hollywood liberals to throw a blow to their right-wing government by awarding a wanted fugitive, especially during wartime. Also in Polanski’s favor, Samantha Geimer, with whom the director had sexual relations with while he was 43 and she 13, has been hitting the talk show circuit to try and clear his path to victory. “The Pianist” is a masterpiece, and as much as he deserves the Oscar, I’m afraid that’s just too much baggage, much worse than the recent scam involving Miramax allegedly forging comments praising Scorsese on recent ads. Look for Scorsese to take a long overdue award home, even though “Gangs” is far from his best work.

Best Picture

“Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” looks really out of place here; the Academy will wait to honor Peter Jackson’s trilogy next year. “Chicago” is huge right now, both critically and at the box office, which could play well in its favor. “The Hours” and “Gangs” seem a bit too dated to take this one. But if one thing’s for sure, it’s that the Academy loves to honor Holocaust pieces, and “The Pianist” is one of the greatest ever made in that genre. With that in mind, look for “The Pianist” to win. That way Polanski gets some credit.