“I’m not going to stock up on heating oil,” joked Mark Strehl, chief meteorologist for WIFR TV 23, regarding the return of the weather phenomenon known as El Nino.

El Nino, a weather effect characterized by the warming of waters in the South Pacific every two to seven years, is likely to return this spring, according to recent reports by the National Science Center and various other weather monitoring agencies worldwide.

“It looks like there is some evidence of a growing El Nino event,” Strehl said. “That evidence is based on warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial region of the South Pacific.”

Strehl said scientists call the cause of the phenomenon the Southern Oscillation, which is indicated by a rise in sea surface temperatures.

Essentially, Strehl said, “there is a little flip that happens with different layers of the ocean.”

“It is something that happens on a routine basis, but you can’t really count on it every ‘X’ amount of years,” Strehl explained. “It’s not like the swallows returning to Capistrano, but this is something that happens with regularity.”

He added meteorologists still have much to learn about the phenomenon, although knowledge of its existence is not new.

“We’re learning more and more about this all the time,” Strehl continued. “The El Nino event is something that fishermen along the central and equatorial coast of South America have known about for well over a hundred years.”

In fact, a recent report in the journal “Science” shows that the phenomenon has been occurring at varying intervals for nearly 6,000 years.

These findings are based on studies of the remains of fish bones, and support earlier studies that indicate that El Nino is a relatively new geographical phenomenon.

The El Nino event has been highly publicized in its past few occurrences, and is sometimes blamed for famines and floods.

“What happens when you have a warming sea surface temperature is that it starts to push the weather around; it really shows how interdependent our weather systems are,” Strehl continued. “What we typically see during that kind of weather event is pretty close to what we’ve seen this year, at least here in the Midwest.”

Strehl expounded on what weather characteristics El Nino brings to the Midwest.

“Oftentimes we’ll see what we call a split flow in the jet-stream; that’s where the Northern branch goes right along the U.S./Canadian border and keeps the really cold air up across Canada and prevents it from spilling down our way,” Strehl added. “Then we usually end up with a fairly mild winter, which is why a lot of folks up here are keeping their fingers crossed for another El Nino.”

Strehl said he is happy with the public reaction to new discoveries in meteorology.

“One thing that I think is really cool is that a lot of people are paying attention to El Nino, and it’s something that no one talked about 10 years ago,” Strehl said. “It shows how much the public has gotten into understanding what’s going on with weather and with the world. It also shows how much we don’t know, how much our knowledge is increasing, but we’ve got a long way to go. It’s as much art as science.”

Some students liked the idea of another mild winter.

“I would really like another winter like this one,” sophomore psychology major Ariana Johnson said. “It’s been really nice to not have to trudge through the snow to get to class every day.”

And even if it means a warm summer, Johnson still won’t complain, as long as some of the aforementioned rain waits until the winter months.

“The job I had last summer required me to work at outdoor art shows a lot, and I might work there this summer too, so I hope that the summer is kind of dry,” Johnson said. “I don’t mind the heat, but humidity and pouring rain can really ruin a day of work. Hopefully, El Nino won’t cause too much rain, at least during the summer.”

Fellow psychology major Dominik Taborski echoed Johnson’s sentiments about this winter’s warmth, but with one light-hearted caveat.

“It kind of kills the skiing,” Taborski said sarcastically, “but this is perfect.”

While Strehl’s forecast for the summer may disappoint Johnson slightly, the overall prediction seems optimistic.

“In terms of this summer, I think El Nino will just start to get going,” Strehl said. “I don’t think it will be in full effect [until next winter], but it could mean some wetter conditions for parts of the upper Midwest [throughout the summer].”

The El Nino event might cause some unseasonably warm weather next year, but it doesn’t explain the warmth thus far this winter

“I haven’t seen a lot of evidence as to what has caused the split flow of the jet stream [to occur this year],” Strehl said, “but I know a lot of folks aren’t complaining.”

He said he doesn’t believe the area has logged any temperatures below zero, unusual for this area, and doesn’t expect there to be any temperatures that low with winter winding down.

“The days keep getting longer and there is more sunlight, the South starts to warm up and it becomes more difficult for that cold weather to spill down our way,” Strehl concluded, “and I think we’ll see another repeat performance. I’m expecting another fairly mild winter next year.”