Today is Feb. 2, the day the groundhog makes his traditional appearance and begs the question: Shadow or no?

Tradition says if the groundhog sees his shadow, winter will continue for six more weeks. If he doesn’t, winter officially ends today.

NIU meteorologist Gilbert Sebenste predicts the critter will confirm what most people don’t want to hear.

“The outlook for Friday is clear, sunny and very cold,” Sebenste said. “Looks like the groundhog is going to see his shadow and confirm the obvious, which is more cold and more snow.”

Retired NIU meteorologist Allen Staver said the shadow may appear, but winter won’t drag on for six weeks. Cold temperatures are here now, but DeKalb should expect a warming trend, with more than half of February producing thawing days with above-freezing temperatures, Staver said.

Groundhog Day originated with an old Scottish belief that “if Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there will be two winters in the year.”

Every Feb. 2, people gather outside the village of Punxsutawney, Penn., to witness an actual groundhog’s emergence from his underground nest. Area residents contend the groundhog’s never wrong. According to www.gojp.com, Punxsutawney’s ceremony was secret until 1966, when the groundhog’s prediction finally was revealed to the public.

The furry animal, known as Punxsutawney Phil, comes out of his burrow, searches for a shadow and gives his prediction in “groundhogese.” A representative, who supposedly speaks groundhogese fluently, translates the groundhog’s prediction to the public.

Since Groundhog Day’s advent in 1887, Phil and his predecessors reportedly have seen their shadows 90 percent of the time.

The occasion is so popular today that people make special travel arrangements to go to Punxsutawney for Groundhog Day. There also are special groundhog games, parties and apparel. The 1992 movie “Groundhog Day,” starring Bill Murray, also celebrated the holiday.

All pageantry aside, Staver says Groundhog Day isn’t an accurate prediction for the future.

“I think Groundhog’s Day is a bunch of bologna,” Staver said. “People tend to believe the groundhog more than anyone else. But weathermen are only 55 to 60 percent accurate to begin with. So I don’t think that the groundhog’s prediction is too great.”

Sebenste believes the day is merely legend and shouldn’t be taken seriously.

“I think Groundhog’s Day is rather hokey in that it has no meteorological value,” Sebenste said. “Given the gas prices, though, anyone who mentions more cold weather, like the groundhog should on Friday, is in for an assassination. That groundhog might want to consider hiring a few secret service agents to protect him.”